澳大利亚公布了最终的MH370调查报告

也许很多人都已经忘记了马航370了，但是有些人在过去的几年中默默无闻地工作着，只为了尽自己最大的努力，还原MH370事件的真相。就在今天澳大利亚方面，公布了最终的MH370搜寻工作的调查报告。全文地址可以去https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5773565/operational-search-for-mh370_final_3oct2017.pdf 下载。

调查报告解读

调查团在前文总结中，表示：“飞机失事的原因在飞机找到之前无法确定。“但是不可思议的是在这个现代航空业每天运输上千万乘客的今天，这么大一架商业客机失踪了，我们到现在都没有找到这架飞机，不知道这架飞机上发生了什么事情！”

笔者粗略看了一下调查报告，这个440页的调查报告还是很严谨和详细的。

主要分成几部分：

• 事件背景

• 飞机背景信息

• 水面搜寻

• 黑盒子搜寻

• 水底搜寻

• 其他可能区域的搜寻

• 其他影响搜寻的可能因素

• 复原分析

• 安全性分析

• 附录数据。

MH370本来是要飞往北京的，但是中途突然关掉应答机，然后偏离航线，神秘失踪。

如果从没那么严谨的角度来讲：关掉应答机，然后偏离航线这个动作就透露了凶手是谁。

飞机的航线和已知的飞行轨迹

分析报告中列出了乘客和机组人员的组成：

确认了飞机乘客中有两名伊朗人，但他们不是用自己身份登机的，分别用偷来的奥地利和意大利人的护照。

两本护照是从在到泰国的欧洲游客那边偷来的。过去两年的调查无法确定他们是否和恐怖组织有关系。由于缺乏证据，澳大利亚方面无法去证明或者否定这些猜测，毕竟他们主要是搜寻的。

水面搜寻

由于事件发生的早期（8号到15号）的马来西亚方面互相矛盾的信息，导致大量的人力物力放在了马来半岛附近搜寻（图中画框的地方）结果是一无所获。

当水面搜寻失败之后只能通过卫星的通信握手信号，定位飞机的大概范围。最后一次收到握手信号在最大那个环上面。

这个BFO握手信号会收受到飞机的速度，卫星自己的位置，运行的速度，方向等多方面的影响。但是分析人员根据数据确定，飞机是往南印度洋飞去的。这个猜测被2015年和2016发现的部分飞机残骸所验证。

随后的水面搜寻都是按照这个环去搜的，但是中间虽然中方称曾经听到信号，但是依然无法找到。

对于飞机可以坠毁的区域进行了地毯式的搜索，依然是一无所获。

黑盒子搜寻

要知道但是即便是这个环，也是个非常大的区域。所以在随后的一段时间内，中国，澳大利亚联手在南印度洋利用声波定位技术去寻找黑盒子。

黑盒子（黑盒子不是黑的，黑盒子一旦入水之后，白色画圈部件会发出脉冲信号帮助定位）

在几艘搜寻船中，海洋之盾号收到过5次信号

但是还是无法精确定位到飞机残骸在哪个地方。4月12号，黑匣子电量耗完。

水下搜寻

搜寻的队伍开始使用水下无人航行器去搜寻，一种是拽曳式的，一种是完全无人自主航行的。

但是该区域非常复杂，海底并不是一个大平板，也是有山川河谷的。有火山，也有深谷。要搜寻的区域就是这样一个复杂区域，搜寻方，边测绘，边寻找。

海底的火山与海底的海沟。

出事区域海底概况，说是海底的秦岭也不过分。

时间一天天的过去，区域越来越小，但是依然找不到飞机的残骸。

飞机残骸区域的概率热力图，越是红色地方，越是有可能找到。可惜依然没有找到。

东非找到的部分残骸

2015年，2016年在印度洋的另一侧东非的海岸陆陆续续发现一些飞机的残骸，多是一些有浮力的构件。基本上确认了这些部件来自于马航370。

飞机上的很多部件部件陆陆续续在海岸找到。很大程度上都是随着洋流飘过来的，但是真正的残骸位置，还是一直没有找到。

停止搜寻

时光飞逝，转眼就到了2017年的1月份，中澳双方同意终止MH370的搜寻工作。

截止2017年1月总共搜寻了超过12万平方公里的海底。专家组确定了2.5万平方公里最有可能发现航班碎片的区域。

2017年10月3日，搜寻调查报告发表。

调查方用难以置信，不可思议来感慨在人类准备飞向火星的时代，居然这么大一家商业客机，凭空消失了。中澳两国花了1000天都没有找到。

小结

虽然澳大利亚的报告虽然不能找出飞机具体在哪个地方，但是整个事件中澳大利亚还是相当配合与敬业的，感谢澳大利亚做出的努力。

马航370事件也许会和历史上众多悬案一样，时不时激起一阵涟漪。但是飞机上的239条无辜的生命被人永远夺去，很多家庭至今无法从悲伤中走出来。

我自己曾经翻过微博上名为“漫步鱼”的马航乘客家属几年间的微博，令人窒息的痛。

希望家属早日走出阴影，也希望历史能给MH370一个交代。

来自： 西雅图雷尼尔

The Operational Search for MH370

Executive summary

On 8 March 2014, a Boeing 777 aircraft operated as Malaysia Airlines flight 370 (MH370) was lost during a flight from Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia to Beijing in the People’s Republic of China carrying 12 crew and 227 passengers. The search for the missing aircraft commenced on 8 March 2014 and continued for 1,046 days until 17 January 2017 when it was suspended in accordance with a decision made by a tripartite of Governments, being Malaysia, Australia and the People’s Republic of China.

The initial surface search and the subsequent underwater search for the missing aircraft have been the largest searches of their type in aviation history. The 52 days of the surface search involving aircraft and surface vessels covered an area of several million square kilometres. A sub surface search for the aircraft’s underwater locator beacons was also conducted during the surface search.

The underwater search started with a bathymetry survey which continued as required throughout the underwater search and has mapped a total of 710,000 square kilometres of Indian Ocean seafloor, the largest ever single hydrographic survey. The high resolution sonar search covered an area in excess of 120,000 square kilometres, also the largest ever search or survey of its kind. Despite the extraordinary efforts of hundreds of people involved in the search from around the world, the aircraft has not been located.

Regardless of the cause of the loss of MH370, there were no transmissions received from the aircraft after the first 38 minutes of the flight. Systems designed to automatically transmit the aircraft’s position including the transponder and the aircraft communications addressing and reporting system failed to transmit the aircraft’s position after this time period. Subsequent analysis of radar and satellite communication data revealed the aircraft had actually continued to fly for a further seven hours. Its last position was positively fixed at the northern tip of Sumatra by the surveillance systems operating that night, six hours before it ended the flight in the southern Indian Ocean.

The challenge which faced those tasked with the search was to trace the whereabouts of the aircraft using only the very limited data that was available. This data consisted of aircraft performance information and satellite communication metadata initially, and then later during the underwater search, long-term drift studies to trace the origin of MH370 debris which had been adrift for more than a year, and in some cases, more than two years. The types of data, and the scientific methods used for its analysis, were never intended to be used to track an aircraft or pin point its final location.

On 28 April 2014, the surface search for MH370 coordinated by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) was concluded and the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) assumed responsibility for conducting the underwater search for the aircraft. The underwater search area was initially defined at 60,000 square kilometres, and was increased in April 2015 when the Tripartite Governments (Malaysia, Australia and the People’s Republic of China) agreed to expand the search area to 120,000 square kilometres. The primary objective of the underwater search was to establish whether or not the debris field of the missing aircraft was in the area of seafloor defined by expert analysis of the aircraft’s flight path and other information. If a debris field was located, the search needed to confirm the debris was MH370 by optical imaging, and then map the debris field to enable planning for a subsequent recovery operation.

Once underwater search operations commenced in October 2014, the MH370 debris field could potentially have been located at any time. A recovery operation would need to have commenced as soon as possible after the debris field was located and the Tripartite governments had agreed on the next steps. The ATSB's role was therefore to also put in place the arrangements and plans necessary for a rapid recovery operation to occur at short notice.

The underwater search applied scientific principles to defining the most probable area to be searched through modelling the aircraft’s flight path and behaviour at the end of the flight. The flight path modelling was based on unique and sophisticated analysis of the metadata associated with the periodic automated satellite communications to and from the aircraft in the final six hours of the flight. The end-of-flight behaviour of the aircraft, when MH370 was considered to have exhausted its fuel, has been analysed and simulated.

In 2015 and 2016, debris from MH370 was found on the shores of Indian Ocean islands and the east African coastline. The debris yielded significant new insights into how and where the aircraft ended its flight. It was established from the debris that the aircraft was not configured for a ditching at the end-of-flight. By studying the drift of the debris and combining these results with the analysis of the satellite communication data and the results of the surface and underwater searches, a specific area of the Indian Ocean was identified which was more likely to be where the aircraft ended the flight.

The understanding of where MH370 may be located is better now than it has ever been. The underwater search has eliminated most of the high probability areas yielded by reconstructing the aircraft’s flight path and the debris drift studies conducted in the past 12 months have identified the most likely area with increasing precision. Re-analysis of satellite imagery taken on 23 March 2014 in an area close to the 7th arc has identified a range of objects which may be MH370 debris. This analysis complements the findings of the First Principles Review and identifies an area of less than 25,000 square kilometres which has the highest likelihood of containing MH370.

The ATSB’s role coordinating the underwater search involved the procurement and management of a range of sophisticated and highly technical services. Management of the underwater search was aimed at ensuring high confidence in the acquisition and analysis of the sonar search data so that areas of the seafloor which had been searched could be eliminated. A comprehensive program was implemented to ensure the quality of the sonar coverage. A thorough sonar data review process was used to ensure areas of potential interest were identified and investigated.

During the early stages of the procurement, careful consideration was given to the methods available for conducting a large scale search of the seafloor. Water depths were known to be up to 6,000 m with unknown currents and unknown seafloor topography. Search operations would also have to be conducted in poor weather conditions and in a very remote area far from any land mass. Planning focused on selecting a safe, efficient and effective method to search the seafloor in an operation with an indeterminate timeframe.

The mapping of the seafloor in the search area revealed a challenging terrain for the underwater search which used underwater vehicles operating close to the seafloor. While the deep tow vehicles selected as the primary search method proved to be very effective, the seafloor terrain necessitated the use of a range of search methods including an autonomous underwater vehicle to complete the sonar coverage.    

The underwater search area was located up to 2,800 km west of the coast of Western Australia and the prevailing weather conditions in this area for much of the year are challenging. Crews on the search vessels were working for months at a time in conditions which elevated the operational risks. The ATSB ensured that these risks to the safety of the search vessels and their crews were carefully managed.

At the time the underwater search was suspended in January 2017, more than 120,000 square kilometres of seafloor had been searched and eliminated with a high degree of confidence. In all, 661 areas of interest were identified in the sonar imagery of the seafloor. Of these areas, 82 with the most promise were investigated and eliminated as being related to MH370. Four shipwrecks were identified in the area searched.

The intention of this report is to document the search for MH370, in particular, the underwater search including; where the search was conducted (and why), how the search was conducted, the results of the search and the current analysis which defines an area where any future underwater search should be conducted. The report also includes a safety analysis which is focused on the search rather than on discussing the range of factors which may have led to the loss of the aircraft.

The Government of Malaysia is continuing work on their investigation of the facts and circumstances surrounding the loss of MH370 aircraft consistent with their obligations as a member State of ICAO. The Malaysian investigation is being conducted in accordance with the provisions of ICAO Annex 13, Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation.  

The search, recovery and investigation of the loss of Air France flight AF447, in the South Atlantic Ocean in 2009, and the loss of MH370 have led to some important learnings related to locating missing aircraft on flights over deep ocean areas. Requirements and systems for tracking aircraft have been enhanced and will continue to be enhanced. Steps are being taken to advance other aircraft systems including emergency locator transponders and flight recorder locator beacons.

The ATSB acknowledges the extraordinary efforts of the hundreds of dedicated professionals from many organisations in Australia and around the world who have contributed their time and efforts unsparingly in the search for MH370.  

The reasons for the loss of MH370 cannot be established with certainty until the aircraft is found. It is almost inconceivable and certainly societally unacceptable in the modern aviation era with 10 million passengers boarding commercial aircraft every day, for a large commercial aircraft to be missing and for the world not to know with certainty what became of the aircraft and those on board.

The ATSB expresses our deepest sympathies to the families of the passengers and crew on board MH370. We share your profound and prolonged grief, and deeply regret that we have not been able to locate the aircraft, nor those 239 souls on board that remain missing.

General details

Aircraft details